If the rumours are credible - and being rumours, they shouldn't be confused with fact just yet - the UK Treasury has wine drinkers in its sights this year. Instead of the usual four or five pence duty increase, Alistair Darling is said to be contemplating a hike of anything between 10 and 20 pence a bottle. Whether this is in response to hysterical headlines about Friday night binge-drinking and creeping Pinot Grigio-addiction among the middle classes or just driven by the need to raise some cash is a moot point. But what it means is that you will pay more for your wine in 2008.
There are other factors pushing prices upwards: a short, drought-affected 2007 vintage in Australia (which has made grapes from hot, irrigated areas more expensive), the strength of the Chilean economy and the declining Sterling/Euro exchange rate, which has plunged by around 10 per cent in recent months. I've been writing about wine for more than 20 years, and I've never heard wine merchants and retailers sound so pessimistic.
'We need to put our prices up just to stand still,' one of them told me last week, 'but punters don't have much money to spend at the moment, so if we do they may buy less, or not buy at all. If we get a duty increase in the budget as well, there are going to be casualties this year.' Never has it been truer that the fastest way to turn a large fortune into a small one is to enter the wine business ...
The average price of a bottle of wine is currently around £4 in this country. I find this depressing, given the generally pretty ordinary quality of what you get for that little money. If you lift your horizons a little, you will drink much better vino at £4.99 or £5.99 than at £3.99. The reason for this is that duty is a fixed cost. The more you spend, the less significant it is as a percentage of the overall bottle price. It's still possible to find good wine under £4.99, but you need to know where to look. Spain, Portugal, Italy, France, Chile, South Africa and Argentina would be my tips for quality-conscious bargain hunters, but I suspect that the deals are going to be harder and harder to come by over the next 12 months.
As we wait for the Treasury to make its mind up, I suggest that you stock up on a few inexpensive bottles now. If the duty increase doesn't happen, there'll be even more reason to celebrate.
Red
2006 South African Pinotage (£3.49, Asda)
Pinotage, South Africa's gift to the world of wine, is not to everyone's taste, but when it's soft and juicy like this (with none of those burnt- rubber notes), it's a great fireside red with notes of wild strawberry and liquorice.
2006 Colmado Tempranillo, Campo de Borja (£3.59, Majestic)
If you haven't caught on to the value for money wines coming out of Spain's Campo de Borja region, this youthful, juicy, but far from simple Tempranillo will be a revelation. Strawberry fruit is backed up by a core of tannin.
2007 Los Nucos Cabernet Sauvignon, Luis Felipe Edwards (£3.99, M&S)
Chilean Cabernet Sauvignon is a sure-fire bet if you've only got £5 in your hand. This vibrant, intense example is packed with blackcurrants and embellished with an oak character.
2006 Torre Beratxa Red, Navarra (£4.99, selected Threshers)
Breaking with the local tradition of blending red grape varieties, this brilliantly gluggable Spanish red is made entirely from Garnacha. It's peppery, refreshing and brimming with strawberry flavours.
2006 Canaletto Pinot Noir, Pavia (£4.99, Tesco)
The idea of a Pinot Noir from Italy might seem slightly unusual, but this inexpensive take on Burgundy's fabled red grape is as good as anything from France or Chile under £5. Violet scents and bright cherry flavours.
2006 Otra Vida Malbec, Mendoza (£4.99, Sainsbury's)
Is this the year when Argentine Malbec finally breaks into the mainstream? If wines like this blackberryish, Chilean-owned example are anything to go by, it surely can't be long before it does.
White
Asda Cava Brut (£3.76, or three for £10, Asda)
Cheap Cava can be supremely nasty, but this has the advantage of being a Chardonnay-based blend rather than a cocktail of local grapes. It's a delicious bottle of fizz at this price, with plenty of bubbles and lemony acidity.
2006 Sainsbury's Verdicchio dei Castelli Jesi (£3.99, Sainsbury's)
Italian whites have improved out of all recognition in the past five years. This honeyed, nutty Verdicchio has good weight and a pleasant, seedy twist.
2007 Casablanca Sauvignon Blanc, Pablo Morande (£4.99, M&S)
Chile's coastal vineyards are producing some of the New World's best-value whites at the moment, especially from Sauvignon Blanc and Chardonnay. This is crisp with Sauvignon characters.
2006 Portal da Aguia Branco, Ribatejo (£4.99, Oddbins)
Made from two native white varieties, Arinto and Fernao Pires, this is a real find. It's a spicy, ginger-scented blend with lively acidity and rich, buttery flavours. A great Portuguese alternative to Vinho Verde at a smart price.
2006 Tesco Macon Villages (£4.96, Tesco)
A real find from the southern end of the Burgundy region, this easy drinking, unoaked Chardonnay is typical of the 2006 vintage, with crisp, citrus acidity, a mealy texture and lovely poise and length. Hard to beat for under £5.
Waitrose Manzanilla Fina Sherry (£4.99, Waitrose)
You'd be better off drinking this on the beach in Sanlucar de Barrameda than in the greyness of a British winter, but it's still a deliciously nutty Manzanilla with a sea salt tang and a bone-dry finish. A wonderful sherry.
